Search results for "Bayesian [statistics]"
showing 10 items of 228 documents
Un approccio bayesiano per lo studio dell’associazione gene-ambiente in assenza di equilibrio di Hardy-Weinberg in un contesto multivariabile: studio…
2009
Modelling the presence of disease under spatial misalignment using Bayesian latent Gaussian models.
2015
Modelling patterns of the spatial incidence of diseases using local environmental factors has been a growing problem in the last few years. Geostatistical models have become popular lately because they allow estimating and predicting the underlying disease risk and relating it with possible risk factors. Our approach to these models is based on the fact that the presence/absence of a disease can be expressed with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model that incorporates the information provided by the geographical and environmental characteristics of the region of interest. Nevertheless, our main interest here is to tackle the misalignment problem arising when information about possible covar…
Social Support and Resilience as Predictors of Prosocial Behaviors before and during COVID-19
2022
The objective of this research was to analyze the relationship between social support and resilience with prosocial behavior before and during the confinement caused by COVID-19. Materials and Methods: The participants were divided into a confined group (228 women and 84 men) and an unconfined group (153 women and 105 men), all of whom were university students. Instruments were applied to measure the variables proposed. Results: Social support predicted 24.4% of the variance in prosocial behavior among women and 12% among men in the confined group; no evidence of this relationship was found in the unconfined groups. Resilience predicted 7% of the variance in prosocial behavior among confine…
Bayesian approach for uncertainty quantification in water quality modelling: The influence of prior distribution
2010
Summary Mathematical models are of common use in urban drainage, and they are increasingly being applied to support decisions about design and alternative management strategies. In this context, uncertainty analysis is of undoubted necessity in urban drainage modelling. However, despite the crucial role played by uncertainty quantification, several methodological aspects need to be clarified and deserve further investigation, especially in water quality modelling. One of them is related to the “a priori” hypotheses involved in the uncertainty analysis. Such hypotheses are usually condensed in “a priori” distributions assessing the most likely values for model parameters. This paper explores…
An interpolation-based data fusion scheme for enhancing the resolution of thermal image sequences
2014
In several human activities, such as agriculture and forest management, the monitoring of radiometric surface temperature is key. In particular both high spatial resolution and high acquisition rate are desirable but, due to the hardware limitations, these two characteristics are not met by the same sensor. The fusion of remotely sensed data acquired by sensors with different spatial and temporal resolution is a profitable choice to face this issue. When the real-time requirement is relaxed, the data sequence can be processed as a whole, allowing to improve the final result. Within this framework, we propose a novel batch sharpening strategy, relying on interpolation, data fusion and Bayesi…
Modelling the General Public's Inflation Expectations Using the Michigan Survey Data
2009
In this article we discuss a few models developed to explain the general public's inflation expectations formation and provide some relevant estimation results. Furthermore, we suggest a simple Bayesian learning model which could explain the expectations formation process on the individual level. When the model is aggregated to the population level it could explain not only the mean values, but also the variance of the public's inflation expectations. The estimation results of the mean and variance equations seem to be consistent with the results of the questionnaire studies in which the respondents were asked to report their thoughts and opinions about inflation.
A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations
2009
This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested in Carroll [2003, Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 269-298]. The posterior model probabilities based on the Michigan survey data strongly support the proposed model. We also extend the agent-based epidemiology model by deriving for it a simple adaptation, which is suitable for estimation. Our results show that this model is able to capture the heterogeneity in households’ expe…
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Suicide-Related Emergency Calls
2017
Considerable effort has been devoted to incorporate temporal trends in disease mapping. In this line, this work describes the importance of including the effect of the seasonality in a particular setting related with suicides. In particular, the number of suicide-related emergency calls is modeled by means of an autoregressive approach to spatio-temporal disease mapping that allows for incorporating the possible interaction between both temporal and spatial effects. Results show the importance of including seasonality effect, as there are differences between the number of suicide-related emergency calls between the four seasons of each year.
Sequential Monte Carlo methods in Bayesian joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data
2017
El análisis estadístico de la información generada por el seguimiento médico de una enfermedad es un reto muy importante en el ámbito de la medicina personalizada. A medida que avanza el curso evolutivo de la enfermedad en un paciente, su seguimiento genera cada vez más información que debe ser procesada inmediatamente para revisar y actualizar su pronóstico y tratamiento. Nuestro objetivo en esta tesis se centra en dicho proceso de actualización a través de métodos de inferencia secuencial en modelos conjuntos de datos longitudinales y de supervivencia desde una perspectiva Bayesiana. En concreto, proponemos la utilización de métodos secuenciales de Monte Carlo adaptados a modelos conjunto…
Generalized Bayesian Pursuit: A Novel Scheme for Multi-Armed Bernoulli Bandit Problems
2011
In the last decades, a myriad of approaches to the multi-armed bandit problem have appeared in several different fields. The current top performing algorithms from the field of Learning Automata reside in the Pursuit family, while UCB-Tuned and the e-greedy class of algorithms can be seen as state-of-the-art regret minimizing algorithms. Recently, however, the Bayesian Learning Automaton (BLA) outperformed all of these, and other schemes, in a wide range of experiments. Although seemingly incompatible, in this paper we integrate the foundational learning principles motivating the design of the BLA, with the principles of the so-called Generalized Pursuit algorithm (GPST), leading to the Gen…